by Jessica Berk Ross, Managing Partner Global Public Affairs (DC), FINN Partners

We are facing a transformational and decidedly disruptive shift in the geopolitical landscape. War, regional instability, and myriad governmental changes across the world have created uncertainty for both critical source and destination markets as well as the travelling public. Countries and cities are vying for FDI and tourism dollars. And at the same time that many nations are struggling to deal with both environmental and social impacts of over-tourism, some are dealing with drastic reductions in travel to their countries due to conflict and uncertainty. 

In scientific terms, the best way to define this trend is the geopolitical version of Newton’s third law of motion--where when one object pushes on another, the second object pushes on the other with the same force in the opposite direction. In the natural world this can yield wondrous outcomes such as the ability of fish to swim or of birds to fly.

But applied to the marketplace, this same principle can result in a dynamic where tourism policies or initiatives can cause opposite forces to push back with opposing force. For example, energetic campaigns and successful efforts to spark and drive tourism are being met with the force of resistance from locals who feel overrun. As a result, forward-looking, savvy destinations have been focused on promoting the diversity of places and experiences they can offer within a country to offset the clustering of tourism in hot spots that become too crowded, and face, consequently, less pleasurable visits.  Strategic destination nations like Greece and the Bahamas are carefully showcasing the full complement of what their countries have to offer—from lesser-known islands to off-piste experiences that deliver a fresh look at well-known destinations.

Community tourism policies are a notable response to this dynamic, and countries and cities grapple with how tourism effects local and regional economies.  These evolving frameworks can help broaden the tent of who benefits from tourism, as well as quell some of the power of that opposing force by reducing the friction resulting from unequal distribution of the benefit to communities.

Similarly, the race to build tourism product and infrastructure can create direct conflict with essential environmental priorities and needed sustainability initiatives. Many considerations from zoning and real estate development guidelines to cruise ships controversies, to wildlife management policies are all reflective of this dichotomy. But this does not decrease the urgency to pursue sustainable tourism policies to ensure the preservation of the very same natural resources that attract and delight travellers.  At the same time, destinations must meet the very real consumer and market demand signals that create the pressure to pursue sustainability programs and efforts that travellers seek now.  Most people care about feeling as if they have made good choices about how to move through the world. As we hear so often now, sustainability is the new luxury, and the desire for tourism sparked by meaning and conscience is at the core of much of the sector’s efforts.

Another way this force is at work is in the larger geopolitical context where an emphasis on globalism faces the backlash of isolationism. The movement towards open borders and frictionless travel may meet the push of momentum towards increased restrictions and requirements. For example, there has been much coverage of late of the increasing tensions sparked by the second Trump Administration’s focus on tariffs and trade policy as a tactical tool to exact political and diplomatic cooperation and concessions.  This could create—as so often happens—unintended consequences of retaliatory programs, policies or proclivities, or at a minimum biases or resentments that result in behaviour change around travel decisions.

There also continues to be a rising tension between information and disinformation. Misinformation and disinformation pose a threat to the tourism industry and have business impact across markets and around the world.  Tourism is especially susceptible to this, and we see that deep fakes and fake news can have an immediate impact on the perception of a destination.  And because tourism and politics are often so closely intertwined, disinformation by malicious actors—or what we called propaganda in the before times—can lead to uncertainty, less interest, loss of confidence or erosion of trust in a nation or government that can have significant consequences on the tourism sector, as those things become inextricably linked.

And so, all nations and cities must urgently navigate the competing market and political forces. What’s a destination to do?  Leveraging insights that utilize the convergence of travel and tourism expertise, data and analytics, stronger internal and external research, and public affairs counsel can inform more evolved and strategic creative solutions.  An evolved cross-disciplinary approach to branding strategies can help to better position destination markets in the complex environment and the dynamic push and pull of so many competing sources.